The Gambling Caoch Blog

Hello again!

Joseph Carducci from http://www.thegamblingcoach.com

Hope all is well with you and yours today.

A question that I am asked quite often is what to play in a casino. I will be totally honest with you here. I do not play in casinos too often. The only game that you have a good chance of beating in a traditional casino is poker. Then again, not every brick and mortar casino will even have a poker room, or even offer a poker game.

The problem is that these games are set up for the casino to make money! Think about it for a minute–all those beautiful hotels and fancy restaraunts were built with a lot of cold hard cash. Cash from unsuspecting players. The thing is that most people visiting a casino expect to lose. Sure, they may have the hope or germ of a thought in the back of their mind that lightning might strike. They might hit a $1,000,000 jackpot on the slots. Or they might go on the run of a lifetime at the roulette wheel. Another commonality of almost ALL casino patrons is that they do not walk in with any kind of PLAN. My friends, failure to plan is the same thing as planning to fail. I’m serious.

Ok, Joe, you are probably thinking by now, get to the darn point! Well, my point is just that you must understand that in a casino there is not too much you can play where you will actually expect to get the best of it…at least not over the long run. However, you still need to go in with a plan of attack.

A plan of attack primarily means money management. You need to divide your bankroll into sessions. Decide how many sessions you will have. Then divide your money accordingly. Now, if you are playing and end up losing all of a session’s money, then it is time to leave. You can return when it is time for your next session, but not before. Now, you also need to set win goals. Do this on a per session basis. For example, you have $1000 set aside per session. Maybe say that if you get up $200 at any session you will quit. This is your win goal. Also, never mix money from one session with another.

This is just a basic example. You can have as elaborate or as simple a plan as you like. Just make one and stick to it! If you ever have any ideas of becoming a professional gambler, you need to develop enough discipline to be able to do this.

As far as the games themselves go, I think blackjack is probably your best bet. Of course, to really turn the odds in your favor, you should be able to count cards. It helps if you have a good memory, but I believe that you can train yourself for this. At the VERY least, play according to solid basic strategy. However, I caution
you with this advice: the casinos themselves will gladly provide you with a card or chart that displays correct basic strategy decisions. Why do you think this is? Would they be doing this to increase your advantage? Or perhaps theirs? See where I am going with this?

Always remember that if the casino is promoting or encouraging you to do something, it is probably in their best interest to do so. Never assume that they will do anything to help you beat them. They are blood-sucking leeches who want only one thing. That is every dollar in your wallet. They have a huge marketing machine that preys upon the weak and the compulsive/obsessive. This is why I consider any time that you are in a casino to be a battle. It is warfare. It really never had to be this way, but this is what the gaming industry turned it into.

Well, enough with my rant. The best advice I can give about playing in a casino is to control your money with good management and a plan, and stick with blackjack as your primary game in the casino.

Having said all that, there are times when other games become attractive. The main situation I am referring to is when a casino is running a special promotion. They may change the payoff odds during certain times. This is an example of when the odds could actually favor the player. Of course, it depends on what game, and how the odds are changed. If they offer say a double payout for a royal flush on video poker, for example, that might not be a great player opportunity. The simple reason is how often will you receive a royal flush. On the other hand, if the promotion is paying off blackjacks at 2-1 (intead of 3-2 or even 6-5), that would be a GREAT deal for a player. In fact, I might even get on a plane and come out if I could get a deal like that…even if it was for only one or two hours a day.

This is another reason why you need to have a familiarity with various games, and know a little about math. At least how to figure out probabilities. You need to analyze each promotion that you think might provide you with an advantage and then work the numbers. If you have questions, definitely post a comment and we can help you in this area.

I also want to say a word about roulette. Many people think that there are easy ways to beat roulette. I have a good friend who spent the better part of 20 years trying to prove that he could beat roulette. Now, before you jump to conclusions, let me just say that this person was THE most persistent sob I have ever met. I
have personally seen him lose thousands of dollars at roulette and sit there 40 hours at the table just grinding his money back. And all of this started when he was within $20 of his win goal! THE best roulette player I have ever known. And he will freely admit that he cannot beat the game. Let this be a lesson to you.

There are many “systems” out there that claim they can show you how to win at the game of roulette. Most of these use a betting system called the “Martingale.” Here is how this works–make an initial bet on a wager that has as close to a 50-50 payout as possible. For example, this could be a wager on either red or black for this example. Say $1 just to be simple. Now, if it wins, great. Make your next bet for $1. Eventually, you will lose a bet. Then your next should be $2. If you lose this one, bet $4. Assuming you lose again, bet $8. In other words, after each loser you simply double the amount of your last bet. Well, there are several problems with this “system.” First, when you win a bet, you are only $1 ahead for that series. Even if you bet $1024 and won, you are still only $1 ahead for that series. Personally, I do not like the fact that if I happen to hit a bad run (which happens more frequently than you might think), I could be betting over 1,000 times the amount of my minimum bet, only to come out $1 or $5 ahead. Incidentally, you would reach a $1024 bet after 10 consecutive losers. Don’t think that could happen? I have seen it many times. The second problem with the Martingale is that eventually you will either run out of money or will reach the table limits. If you are not able to place the next bet, or you must bet less than your ’system’ calls for, what then? Assuming you still have a bankroll, you will be forced to either stay at the table maximum and HOPE for a good run, or improvise. Improvisation in the middle of a ’system’ is never a good thing…it means you are losing and your fail-proof ’system’ did not work!

If you ever use a Martingale, it may work for a while. However, sooner or later you will reach disaster. It has happened to me in my younger days. And I have seen it more times than I care to remember. In a future post I will give you a better way to use a modified Martingale system if you just cannot resist the urge to play a
game like roulette.

That’s all for now.

Hello.

Joseph Carducci again from http://www.thegamblingcoach.com.

Hope everything is going well.

One of the biggest questions a gambler must ask themselves is which games should they play. Obviously, personal interest and desire will play a role in this decision.

I would also suggest that you consider the game itself. I mean is it a beatable game? Something that you have a chance of coming out ahead with, over the long term?

For example, let’s take a look at sports. For the sports which use a spread and the standard 11-10 odds, your break even point is slightly abouve 52%. Even if all you did was guess, you should be able to come close to hitting a 50% win rate. Granted, some sports are more difficult than others, but I think you can see the point I am trying to make. Even with a slight 2% house advantage, sports wagering is simply a matter of
opinion. If your opinion is better than your books, you will win. Over the long run.

Additionally, sports is different than most casino games. It is what we call a no-ante contest. This simply means that you can pick your spots. In other words, you are not required to bet on every game. Compare this to playing craps, where you must be in action with every roll of the dice. Or even baccarat, where your actions are, in fact, already pre-programmed once the hand starts! With sports you have the opportunity to look at the board and pick which games you think the line is off on.

Another great thing about sports is that it is the only game where you can increase the size of your bet (in proportion to your bankroll) and still have almost the same advantage. You can’t do this in horse racing, because it affects the track odds. You can’t do it in blackjack, either. Try increasing your bet and you will encounter a fair amount of “heat,” and perhaps even other unwanted attention. Even with poker, if you move up into bigger stakes games, you will run into more skilled players who may cut into your win rate (sometimes significantly).

I think I have proven my case that sports wagering is a beatable game.

Obviously, poker is a game of high skill. Even the federal government recognizes this fact and provides tax benefits to poker professionals. The trick of course is to find the proper level of game. If you play for stakes which are too low, then you will not win as much as you should. On the other hand, if you play for stakes
which are too high, you will be outclassed and your win rate will drop…probably lower than what it would have been in the lower stakes game. But it is definitely a beatable game.

Balckjack is another beatable game. Of course, the edge may be razor thin. It can be done, though. You will probably need to learn how to count cards, and put in the time to have this skill absolutely mastered! The thing I really like about playing blackjack is that the odds are constantly changing. The cards that have been already played do have an effect on the hand that you are currently playing. This is the ONLY reason why blackjack can be considered a beatable game.

I will also mention horse racing as a beatable game. The main reasons for this are similar to those of sports–it is also a no-ante contest, and it is a matter of opinion. Of course, like everything else, it will require a degree of study and a level of expertise. Also you need to understand that there is a huge tax on this levied by the track. You will almost always be paid about 15-20% less than you would if it was a fair game. It’s tough to overcome, but can be done.

You should be prepared to put in the effort and time to master whatever games you choose to focus on.

If you are going to engage in any kind of gambling activities for profit, then I urge you to focus on those games which are beatable. And to focus ONLY on these games.

Hello Again!

One of the biggest questions I am asked about my profession (gambling) is this: “Is internet gambling legal?”

The answer is a bit unclear, to be perfectly honest. The US has passed a law awhile back that many CLAIM makes internet gambling illegal. This is untrue. What the law actually does is place a number of restrictions on internet gambling sites and even on the financial institutions which supposedly handle the transfer of money between player and site.

One of the main problems with this law is that there is no teeth to it. Since almost all of these gambling sites are located outside of the USA, they have no reason to comply with any of this. However, in an effort to avoid bullying and other tactics, many sites have decided to simply not accept any more players from the United States.

So, basically, all this Internet Gambling Prohibition Act has done is to ensure that the books and casinos will be located offshore. The language of the bill has made it clear that no US-based internet casino can accept money from a bank or financial institution. Big deal, considering there were no US-based online casinos to begin with!

Incidentally, this Act does not place any restrictions at all on online poker playing. So, if you are a poker player (and if you are reading this you SHOULD be!), keep on keeping on!

Even if the law did have some teeth, the online gambling industry is so large and lucrative that a way around the laws will be found. The government has rightly understood that it would simply be impossible to go after the millions of citizens who enjoy playing online poker or placing a bet with an off-shore sportsbook.
Therefore, they had decided years ago to start attacking the sources of financing. The hope was that this would shut down the casinos themselves. Then we would have no place to play.

Credit card companies and online payment services were the first target. Sites such as PayPal were threatened with Patriot Act charges if they continued to accept this “dirty” gambling money. The result of this was the emrgence of other third-party vendors which had no problems doing business with gaming sites. Most of these have now restricted access to US players. Currently, the best way to fund and withdraw
money from an online gambling account is through wire services such as Western Union and MoneyGram.

I also want to point out that even the Federal Government has formed the opinion that NONE of the laws on the books (including the infamous 1961 Wire Act) make it illegal for an individual to gamble online. All of the laws are aimed at the gambling business (the sites, the financing companies and third party vendors).

Therefore, if you HAD been worried about the current state of affairs, don’t be. There are plenty of companies out there that will gladly accept your money to use their online casino or sports book. Just stick with an off-shore book or casino and you will be on solid legal ground.

Maybe someday we will get all the laws to be much less restrictive. Maybe the US government will wake up and realize what a tremendous source of revenue they could tap into by fully legalizing this $12 Billion a year industry?

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