NFL Week #5
All of my teasers from last week won. That makes it 4 weeks in a row with these large point teasers. By the way, I have now essentially doubled my initial investments in these various sports books, since the beginning of the year (and I do NOT use these LPT for pre-season). I have been fairly conservative this year, some years have been even better.
On to this week. Here is what I have:
Minnesota +11
Dallas +13
New York Giants +6 1/2
Baltimore +12 1/2
San Francisco +18 1/2
New England +18
Indianapolis +17 1/2
This week does not offer a slate of NFL games that figures to be too interesting, or even overly competitive. But, once again, I am not betting in order to see a competitive game, or to be entertained! I bet only to win money. There were several other games this week that I thought VERY hard about doing…
Carolina +17 1/2 (anyone against the Redskins should be a good bet this year…I see Carolina possibly winning this one straight up); I could also very easily see most of the games I took as being winners both ways. I almost took Phily +6, but in the end decided not to get too greedy. Those big favorites should be able to simply pull out a win, but I have a feeling that there might be a surprise somewhere this week.
Talk to you again next week! Long live the Large Point Teaser!!
October 22nd, 2009 at 8:16 am
This question does not relate to this post but I was not sure how to post a general question. I have noticed that for some games books will not offer the usual 10/11 return on a win. Many times I will see 5/6 return for one team and then 1/1 return for the other. Is this becaue the action is too imbalance for one team? Because I always thought that balance of action on each team would change the line.
October 24th, 2009 at 8:47 am
The return could indeed be changed as you have described due to a betting action imbalance. It also could be done for other reasons. One of the most prevalent myths in sports betting is that there is often equal betting action on each side of a game. In fact, it is pretty rare that there is an equal amount of money bet on each side of a game.
Any book that moves not only the line, but the payoff returns is being greedy. I must admit, though, that when I was making book I also did this. It was especially effective when dealing with customer’s who I knew were fans of certain teams and would bet on those teams. If they are REALLY greedy, then they will move not only the payoff returns, but also the line as well. This is really giving the bookie a double whammy!
I would definitely not recommend making a play under such conditions. Going from a 10/11 to a 5/6 return will seriously increase your break-even winning percentage. So, instead of needing to hit just over 52%, you would need to hit almost 55%!! This is tough to do. Especially when betting on spreads in football.